Assessing the knock-on effects of flooding on road transportation (article)

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordThe dataset associated with this article is available in ORE: https://doi.org/10.24378/exe.1384Flooding can affect every aspect of our lives and road transportation is no an exception. However, the interaction between floods and transportation was not investigated closely in the past. As transportation is the lifeline of any economy, it is essential to analyse potential dangers and threads that can lead to network capacity restraints. Considering the potential of flooding to affect large areas for long durations, disruptions to transportation can result in extensive knock-on effects. To examine how flooding can impact road transportation a novel methodology was developed into a software tool which integrates flood and traffic models. The flood is simulated with InfoWorks flood model and the traffic is represented by a detailed microscopic model (SUMO), which simulates individual vehicles and their interactions. The two systems are integrated in a dynamic way, whereby changes in the flood propagation dictates the temporal variation of road network capacity restrictions. Depending on the flood characteristics, a flooded road in the traffic model undergoes either a speed limit reduction or a complete closure. Once a road has been closed for traffic, vehicles that originally pass through it are forced to choose alternative routes to reach their unique destinations. The reroute will put an additional strain on a system that is already suffering reduced network capacity. The most vulnerable roads in the network are identified after a comparison of the traffic conditions under normal and flooded situation. The results indicate that the locations of flooded streets cannot be directly associated with the most severely congested areas emphasising the significance of the knock-on effects when describing flood impacts on road transportation.European Commissio

Educational recommendations for the conduct, content and format of EULAR musculoskeletal ultrasound Teaching the Teachers Courses

To produce educational guidelines for the conduct, content and format of theoretical and practical teaching at EULAR musculoskeletal ultrasound (MSUS) Teaching the Teachers (TTT) Courses

Preliminary definitions for the sonographic features of synovitis in children

Objectives Musculoskeletal ultrasonography (US) has the potential to be an important tool in the assessment of disease activity in childhood arthritides. To assess pathology, clear definitions for synovitis need to be developed first. The aim of this study was to develop and validate these definitions through an international consensus process. Methods The decision on which US techniques to use, the components to be included in the definitions as well as the final wording were developed by 31 ultrasound experts in a consensus process. A Likert scale of 1-5 with 1 indicating complete disagreement and 5 complete agreement was used. A minimum of 80% of the experts scoring 4 or 5 was required for final approval. The definitions were then validated on 120 standardized US images of the wrist, MCP and tibiotalar joints displaying various degrees of synovitis at various ages. Results B-Mode and Doppler should be used for assessing synovitis in children. A US definition of the various components (i.e. synovial hypertrophy, effusion and Doppler signal within the synovium) was developed. The definition was validated on still images with a median of 89% (range 80-100) of participants scoring it as 4 or 5 on a Likert scale. Conclusions US definitions of synovitis and its elementary components covering the entire pediatric age range were successfully developed through a Delphi process and validated in a web-based still images exercise. These results provide the basis for the standardized US assessment of synovitis in clinical practice and research

Machine Learning for Detecting Virus Infection Hotspots Via Wastewater-Based Epidemiology: The Case of SARS-CoV-2 RNA

This is the final version. Available on open access from the American Geophysical Union via the DOI in this recordData Availability Statement: The COVID-19 contagious persons per day data used for generating the COVID-19 hotspot prevalence in the study are available from the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) at https://data.rivm.nl/covid-19/COVID-19_prevalentie.json with license http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/deed.nl.Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been proven to be a useful tool in monitoring public health-related issues such as drug use, and disease. By sampling wastewater and applying WBE methods, wastewater-detectable pathogens such as viruses can be cheaply and effectively monitored, tracking people who might be missed or under-represented in traditional disease surveillance. There is a gap in current knowledge in combining hydraulic modeling with WBE. Recent literature has also identified a gap in combining machine learning with WBE for the detection of viral outbreaks. In this study, we loosely coupled a physically-based hydraulic model of pathogen introduction and transport with a machine learning model to track and trace the source of a pathogen within a sewer network and to evaluate its usefulness under various conditions. The methodology developed was applied to a hypothetical sewer network for the rapid detection of disease hotspots of the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Results showed that the machine learning model's ability to recognize hotspots is promising, but requires a high time-resolution of monitoring data and is highly sensitive to the sewer system's physical layout and properties such as flow velocity, the pathogen sampling procedure, and the model's boundary conditions. The methodology proposed and developed in this paper opens new possibilities for WBE, suggesting a rapid back-tracing of human-excreted biomarkers based on only sampling at the outlet or other key points, but would require high-frequency, contaminant-specific sensor systems that are not available currently

Amendment of the OMERACT ultrasound definitions of joints' features in healthy children when using the DOPPLER technique

Background: Recently preliminary ultrasonography (US) definitions, in B mode, for normal components of pediatric joints have been developed by the OMERACT US group. The aim of the current study was to include Doppler findings in the evaluation and definition of normal joint features that can be visualized in healthy children at different age groups. Methods: A multistep approach was used. Firstly, new additional definitions of joint components were proposed during an expert meeting. In the second step, these definitions, along with the preliminary B-mode-US definitions, were tested for feasibility in an exercise in healthy children at different age groups. In the last step, a larger panel of US experts were invited to join a web-based consensus process in order to approve the developed definitions using the Delphi methodology. A Likert scale of 1-5 was used to assess agreement. Results: Physiological vascularity and fat pad tissue were identified and tested as two additional joint components in healthy children. Since physiological vascularity changes over the time in the growing skeleton, the final definition of Doppler findings comprised separate statements instead of a single full definition. A total of seven statements was developed and included in a written Delphi questionnaire to define and validate the new components. The final definitions for fat pad and physiological vascularity agreed by the group of experts reached 92.9% and 100% agreement respectively in a web survey. Conclusion: The inclusion of these two additional joints components which are linked to detection of Doppler signal in pediatric healthy joints will improve the identification of abnormalities in children with joint pathologies

Methotrexate withdrawal at 6 vs 12 months in juvenile idiopathic arthritis in remission a randomized clinical trial

Context Novel therapies have improved the remission rate in chronic inflammatory disorders including juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Therefore, strategies of tapering therapy and reliable parameters for detecting subclinical inflammation have now become challenging questions. Objectives To analyze whether longer methotrexate treatment during remission of JIA prevents flares after withdrawal of medication and whether specific biomarkers identify patients at risk for flares. Design, Setting, and Patients Prospective, open, multicenter, medicationwithdrawal randomized clinical trial including 364 patients (median age, 11.0 years) with JIA recruited in 61 centers from 29 countries between February 2005 and June 2006. Patients were included at first confirmation of clinical remission while continuing medication. At the time of therapy withdrawal, levels of the phagocyte activation marker myeloidrelated proteins 8 and 14 heterocomplex (MRP8/14) were determined. Intervention Patients were randomly assigned to continue with methotrexate therapy for either 6 months (group 1 [n=183]) or 12 months (group 2 [n=181]) after induction of disease remission. Main Outcome Measures Primary outcome was relapse rate in the 2 treatment groups; secondary outcome was time to relapse. In a prespecified cohort analysis, the prognostic accuracy of MRP8/14 concentrations for the risk of flares was assessed. Results Intention-to-treat analysis of the primary outcome revealed relapse within 24 months after the inclusion into the study in 98 of 183 patients (relapse rate, 56.7%) in group 1 and 94 of 181 (55.6%) in group 2. The odds ratio for group 1 vs group 2 was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.82-1.27; P=.86). The median relapse-free interval after inclusion was 21.0 months in group 1 and 23.0 months in group 2. The hazard ratio for group 1 vs group 2 was 1.07 (95% CI, 0.82-1.41; P=.61). Median follow-up duration after inclusion was 34.2 and 34.3 months in groups 1 and 2, respectively. Levels of MRP8/14 during remission were significantly higher in patients who subsequently developed flares (median, 715 [IQR, 320-1110] ng/mL) compared with patients maintaining stable remission (400 [IQR, 220-800] ng/mL; P=.003). Low MRP8/14 levels indicated a low risk of flares within the next 3 months following the biomarker test (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.62-0.90). Conclusions In patients with JIA in remission, a 12-month vs 6-month withdrawal of methotrexate did not reduce the relapse rate. Higher MRP8/14 concentrations were associated with risk of relapse after discontinuing methotrexate. Trial Registration isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN18186313.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Multi-ancestry study of blood lipid levels identifies four loci interacting with physical activity.

Many genetic loci affect circulating lipid levels, but it remains unknown whether lifestyle factors, such as physical activity, modify these genetic effects. To identify lipid loci interacting with physical activity, we performed genome-wide analyses of circulating HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and triglyceride levels in up to 120,979 individuals of European, African, Asian, Hispanic, and Brazilian ancestry, with follow-up of suggestive associations in an additional 131,012 individuals. We find four loci, in/near CLASP1, LHX1, SNTA1, and CNTNAP2, that are associated with circulating lipid levels through interaction with physical activity; higher levels of physical activity enhance the HDL cholesterol-increasing effects of the CLASP1, LHX1, and SNTA1 loci and attenuate the LDL cholesterol-increasing effect of the CNTNAP2 locus. The CLASP1, LHX1, and SNTA1 regions harbor genes linked to muscle function and lipid metabolism. Our results elucidate the role of physical activity interactions in the genetic contribution to blood lipid levels